FaFiend

I played around with that glyph too and some investigations showed that it is always seems to be a DPS loss as far as the math can tell. To get a picture of how powerfull Savage Roar (SR) in itself is, picture this scenario: You do not have glyph of Savagery, so Roar provides 40% bonus damage. Fully Raid-buffed, flask etc all active, your DPS at a butcher fight is, say, 28k. Thus, without Savage Roar, your DPS is 20k (since 20k * 1.4 = 28k). For its duration of 42 seconds (at 5CP), SR increases your DPS by 8k. I.e. its total damage is 8k*42 = 336k. If you decide to take the glyph,

Ok, I found the problem... Turns out that Skada actually counts multistrikes as multistrike and as hit or crit. Thus, the number of hits and crits contain the multistrikes, and building the ratio of those numbers leads to wrong results... silly me After yet another test, for the 8.21% multistrike, i.e. 15.7% expected amount of multistrikes I get: Number of Hits: 1300 Number of Crits: 409 Sum of Hits and Crits: 1709 Number of Multistrikes in there: 229 Attacks without multistrike: 1480 Multistrike percentage: 229/1480 = 15.47% Expected from model: 233, i.e. 15.74% Er

Ah, sorry. That's a copy/paste error. If the second one cannot proc if the first one didn't proc, then p(0) should be simply 1-p, i.e. 0,918 in this case. But bear in mind that these are the numbers for the model that says that the second strike can only go off if a first multistrike fired. The calculations for the two independent rolls are in the very first post of this thread. Thanks for spotting this though, I've fixed it :) I just did a smaller test on a level 60 dummy and edited it into the post above.

Hi, Ok, let's try to go through this The sample size is N=2732+1121=3853. The probability to multistrike (assuming two independent rolls with 8.21% each) is 15.7%. The expected number of Multistrikes M is M=3853*15.73%=606. The binomial error on the expected amount of multistrikes is therefore: Delta(M)= SQRT(N * p * (1-p) ) = 22.6 Note that I actually don't know if this calculation is correct. It is correct for one chance (binomial error), but I don't know if it works in the case of multistrike. Thus, (assuming this is not too far off), the expectation in this sample is t

Hi, Edit: Ok, I found out what was wrong -> See my last post (post #7) End Edit. I'm sorry if this is the wrong subforum - I thought about putting it into general discussion, but then decided to put it here, because the multistrike stat was introduced with WoD. I'm writing because I have some problems with multistrike. Reading the tooltip, I worked out how it should work in theory, and I came up with the exact same things as Zagam in this thread: https://www.icy-veins.com/forums/topic/6044-warlords-alpha-stat-summary-with-mathematical-analysis/ However, now that WoD is