5.4 Warlock (Intellect) Trinkets

[Nukeyzsan 0]

Hi guys :>.  Would Normal BBoY be better for aff then Hc Warforged KTT? Heard the multistrike isn't too good if you have a pet out? 

[Lockybalboa 618]

Big reason why most people KTT over BBoY for Destro is that BBoY is very hard to use to the max when playing destro. It's all to common to need to move during that damn proc and loss a CB during it. This makes the trinket almost useless.

 

Aff is just DoT snap shotting, very easy to do even when on the move. BBoY if used well will out do KTT as Afflic.

[Vipples 5]

I've been having extremely horrible luck with my PBoI procs at the start of fights lately. I'm wondering if its just my opener... as it seems fairly consistent now. The ICD is always cleared for at least a few seconds before we pull the boss,  but there were kills this week where it didn't proc until 45+ seconds into the pull.

 

My opener is typically:

Pre-pot 1-2 seconds before pull

CoE on pull (no other application in my group)

Darksoul/racial

Immolate

Conflagx2

RoF if Meta proc'd yet (I recently added this in just to try to get more chances for the trinket to proc)

Incinx3

CBx2

 

It seems like a waste to hold off on using Dark soul until PBoI procs, especially since its been horribly late at times. On my protectors pull, it popped up as we hit the first Meditation phase..... and the ICD was definitely clear before the pull according to my weak aura. Should I be precasting an incinerate or immolate to go up right as we pull? Or do the RNG gods just hate me? 

[Zagam 1,982]

It's RNG.  She can be a fickle bitch.  Nothing you can do except hope for the best.

[mediocregatsby 18]

i've had pulls where we kill the first paragon and get halfway through the second before PBI procs. cant even comprehend the odds on that.

[Liquidsteel 279]

My longest was about a minute and a half I think lol.

[Zagam 1,982]

With a 15% to proc on spell hit, the chances of you not getting a proc grow increasingly rare, almost to the point it's painful to think about.

 

Binomial Distribution using P=0.15, successes = 0, and N = number of spells:

 

1 85.00%
2 72.25%
3 61.41%
4 52.20%
5 44.37%
6 37.71%
7 32.06%
8 27.25%
9 23.16%
10 19.69%
11 16.73%
12 14.22%
13 12.09%
14 10.28%
15 8.74%
16 7.43%
17 6.31%
18 5.36%
19 4.56%
20 3.88%
21 3.29%
22 2.80%
23 2.38%
24 2.02%
25 1.72%
26 1.46%
27 1.24%
28 1.06%
29 0.90%
30 0.76%
31 0.65%
32 0.55%
33 0.47%
34 0.40%
35 0.34%
36 0.29%
37 0.24%
38 0.21%
39 0.18%
40 0.15%
41 0.13%
42 0.11%
43 0.09%
44 0.08%
45 0.07%
46 0.06%
47 0.05%
48 0.04%
49 0.03%
50 0.03%

 

The percentages indicate the % chance of NOT having PBI proc on the Nth spell hit.  If you make it towards 50, don't play the lottery.

[mediocregatsby 18]

i think you mean DO play the lottery, hitting those crazy odds!

[Soulzar 42]

I've been having extremely horrible luck with my PBoI procs at the start of fights lately. I'm wondering if its just my opener... as it seems fairly consistent now. The ICD is always cleared for at least a few seconds before we pull the boss,  but there were kills this week where it didn't proc until 45+ seconds into the pull.

 

Oddly enough, I came here today to complain about the same thing. 

 

All week my PBoI has been proccing like garbage on pull... to the point where i'm convincing msyelf its proc has been quietly adjusted even though i know better... Last night was extreme... the first hour of raid I was ready to quit the game...I actually unequipped and swapped trinket spots because I was so baffled I would try anything...I'd chalk (and still do) the first 7 pulls up to shit RNG.. but all week it has been terrible.  Very very often I am getting a second KTT proc before PBoI procs... Ugg  That said KTT procs like a champ.

 

1. 11 sec

2. 11 sec

3. 29 Sec

4. 30 sec

5. Didnt proc in 1min 22sec attempt!!!

6. 19sec

7. Didnt proc in 1min 17sec attempt!!!

 

From this point in the night outside of 3 attempts it was fairly stable as per usual.... but wow? I thought perhaps we were pulling too quickly and my ICD was not reset yet.. but I checked a few attemtps and I don't think thats it. 

 

We were progression on paragons ..I was getting severely pissed as my dps was half of what it should be due to fucking proc rng and we were JUST missing Skeer dps check before second wave of bloods.

 

Second half of the night things stabilized and we almost killed them.  Our last 3 pulls we were getting to final 3... we have them within a few pulls now.  Man is the fight ever a joke once Aim is out of the mix...

Edited February 25, 2014 by Soulzar

[Strife 6]

Nvm old post :x

Edited March 21, 2014 by Strife

[Zagam 1,982]

Updated values for 5.4.8 with new 588 potential item level of trinkets. 

[illogic 2]

No problem, glad to have helped.

In regards to trinkets, there is no dependability with procs. There have been hot fixes to alleviate some of the tremendous RNG behind the trinkets, but I don't have referenced the formula that GC provided that shows how trinkets are meant to proc more often the longer they go without proccing. Basically, the new trinkets have completely random proc rates. I got Unerring last night and tested it immediately. I went about 2 minutes without a proc and then got 3 in really quick succession. If you're wanting to depend on a proc for these new trinkets, you're going to be disappointed as there's no real way to get a feel for when they will pop. These new trinkets have no ICD, so tracking them is extremely difficult. Just know that you won't have the crappy RNG of not having one proc for 4 minutes happen anymore...that's what the fix to their CDs did. They should proc with the listed RealPPMs I listed as a worst case scenario. The longer you go using the trinkets without a proc, the higher your chances of receiving a proc soon. If I got that formula handy, I MIGHT be able to figure out the maximum ICD of each trinket and then create a sort of confidence interval (likely 95%, no way I can do 99%) of when the trinket is most likely to proc. Just understand that with randomness and statistics, there are always outliers.

This may be redundant, and certainly a necro, but there is a lot of responses in this thread and I cannot be certain it was addressed.  If I am rehashing, please forgive.

"Calculate the proc frequency as normal. Based on that, you can figure out the expected average proc interval. We also now keep track of time since the last successful proc (this is different from the time since last chance to proc), capped at 1000 sec. Multiply the proc chance by MAX(1, 1+((TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc/AverageProcInterval)-1.5)*3). For example, if a proc has an average proc interval of 45 sec, and it’s been 72 sec since your last successful proc, you’ll get a 1.3x multiplier to your proc chance. If you’ve been out of combat for a few min, and it’s been 5 min since your last successful proc, you’ll get a whopping 16.5x multiplier to your proc chance."  

source: http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/6892090046?page=1

I've spent some time in WeakAuras trying to predict upcoming trinket procs, but have been unable to do so.  If anyone cares to take a stab at it, hopefully this formula helps.

 

[Zagam 1,982]

That formula can be utilized to see the increased proc chance, but it typically doesn't kick in until well after the average proc timer.  As you can see from the previous example, if the average proc interval is 45 sec and you go 27 seconds past it, you only get a 1.3x multiplier.  The multiplier is exponential, so you it scales up quickly - it's designed to be a protection against long procs, but it doesn't particularly make procs dependable.  You'll more often than not acquire a proc before the protection mechanism has any real impact.

 

There are addons and weakauras that people use that show the proc multiplier until a proc happens.  These are used as a very loose predictor, but not able to predict that you'll get a proc within the next 10 seconds like you can reliably do with ICD trinkets.

[illogic 2]

I agree.  I think my use of the word "prediction" wasn't accurate from the outset.  Your framing is definitely more accurate.  Now I am not convinced that monitoring the multiplier is worth the effort.  I'd have to hear arguments otherwise.

[Nytemare 2]

Updated values for 5.4.8 with new 588 potential item level of trinkets. 

 

I must be blind as I don't see the update chars with the extra 8 item levels added in the patch. Last one still shows 580 - I currently have normal warforge one max to +16 and would love to know what it really gives in amp.

[Zagam 1,982]

I must be blind as I don't see the update chars with the extra 8 item levels added in the patch. Last one still shows 580 - I currently have normal warforge one max to +16 and would love to know what it really gives in amp.

5.4.8 NEW VALUE - 588 - 10% (9.7% real value) Amplification - 16293 Intellect proc

 

It says that on the first page - it's even bolded.

 

I'm not going to add new calculations for every possible permutation of trinket item levels - it's too redundant and not necessary.  If you want to calculate the value, you use the formula that's provided.  Just for fun, here's how you would do it (not that it matters)...

 

P(559+16) = P(553)*1.15^(((559+16)-553)/15))

P(575) = P(553) * 1.15^(22/15)

P(575) = 7 * 1.15 ^ (22/15)

P(575) = 8.592

 

Your UI or armory will show 9%.  It's a lie.  It's 8.6%.

[Nytemare 2]

5.4.8 NEW VALUE - 588 - 10% (9.7% real value) Amplification - 16293 Intellect proc

 

It says that on the first page - it's even bolded.

 

I'm not going to add new calculations for every possible permutation of trinket item levels - it's too redundant and not necessary.  If you want to calculate the value, you use the formula that's provided.  Just for fun, here's how you would do it (not that it matters)...

 

P(559+16) = P(553)*1.15^(((559+16)-553)/15))

P(575) = P(553) * 1.15^(22/15)

P(575) = 7 * 1.15 ^ (22/15)

P(575) = 8.592

 

Your UI or armory will show 9%.  It's a lie.  It's 8.6%.

 

yeah I was focus on the charts and not the words before it. Trying to figure what the break point would be at 575 which is what my trinket is with +16

[Zagam 1,982]

yeah I was focus on the charts and not the words before it. Trying to figure what the break point would be at 575 which is what my trinket is with +16

Take breakpoint and divide by 1.08592.  Round up.

[Kazistrasz 216]

You're missing an 8.

 

I need to remember to go update my stuff in the druid section with all of this. Curses.

[Zagam 1,982]

Drrrr....fixed.

[Nyanchan 2]

For destruction, what would it be better, a heroic ktt or a hwf bboy? If i understand correctly, if the trinkets were the same ilvl bboy will always give more dps (assuming goods of rng are on ur side) if its used correctly, like timed well with those 10 stacks and such. but ktt is simpler to use and more reliable? But in this case hwf bboy would be slightly better regardless just because its hwf?

[Lockybalboa 618]

Yes. HWF>H and BBoY used well > KTT

[Nyanchan 2]

Yes. HWF>H and BBoY used well > KTT

Oh, mmm, has there been a post about tips and tricks for using BBoY? 

[Zagam 1,982]

Oh, mmm, has there been a post about tips and tricks for using BBoY? 

There's not much to say other than this:

 

Affliction - snapshot DoTs at 10 stack

Destruction - cast Chaos Bolt at 5+ stacks

Demonology - snapshot Doom or use Meta Soul Fires

[KoragonArt 0]

Hello you amazing warlocks.  I finally got the normal version of KTT last night.  

 

Currently I use normal wf PBI and flex bboy.  I've had the flex bboy for so long that I feel I've pretty much mastered the playstyle for destro, including the opener.  This leaves me curious as to which trinket will truly be bettter, despite the difference in item level.  I've read here that bboy, if played well, is better than ktt.  But so often I feel like I can't make best use of it.  It's never realistic to always get off that perfect cb at the 1 second window you have at 10 stacks, as hard as I try.

 

anyway I'm rambling.  At 574, normal ktt over flex bboy?  It'd suuuuure be nice to get rid of the micromanaging of bboy.  ALSO I've read that with ktt, you should always go gosac, and gosup with bboy?  Why is that?

Edited September 12, 2014 by KoragonArt