Thirty(ish) packs of KFT, and not a single Priest card.

[CountPacula 1]

I'm not quite sure what's going on, but for some reason, I have yet to pull ANY Priest cards out of the thirty or so packs of KFT that I've opened so far. The only KFT Priest card that I have at all is Shadowreaper Anduin, which I got for completing the prologue. It's not that I'm getting bad pulls in general - I've pulled multiple legendaries already, and have lots of cards for every other class.

I suspect that I'm just having an odd run of luck, but it does seem to be a bit anomalous. What -are- the chances of not getting any cards from a particular class out of thirty packs?

 

[Guest]

There exists 9 classes + neutal cards.

Neutral cards are more numerous then class cards. I didn't count it but I'd say there are 3 times more neutral cards compared to one single class.

That's why you can define the neutral cards as 3 x a hero class.

-> One card has around a 1/12 chance of being from one specific class.

-> Chances of getting another class as one specific class are 11/12 for each card you get.

30 packs give 150 cards.

Chances of not a single one of them being out of one class is

9 * (11/12^150) = 0,000018

In Prozent: 0,0018%

(The multiplication with 9 is because there are 9 classes [i didn't take the neutral cards into consideration here] and there exists a small chance of not getting a priest card, not getting a warrior card, a druid card...)

[Karayan7 38]

41 minutes ago, WedgeAntilles said:

There exists 9 classes + neutal cards.

Neutral cards are more numerous then class cards. I didn't count it but I'd say there are 3 times more neutral cards compared to one single class.

That's why you can define the neutral cards as 3 x a hero class.

-> One card has around a 1/12 chance of being from one specific class.

-> Chances of getting another class as one specific class are 11/12 for each card you get.

30 packs give 150 cards.

Chances of not a single one of them being out of one class is

9 * (11/12^150) = 0,000018

In Prozent: 0,0018%

(The multiplication with 9 is because there are 9 classes [i didn't take the neutral cards into consideration here] and there exists a small chance of not getting a priest card, not getting a warrior card, a druid card...)

Wow!Your statistical analysis is spot-on!Do you do it by yourself or are you using any kind of tool!Kudos anyway!

[CountPacula 1]

49 minutes ago, WedgeAntilles said:

Chances of not a single one of them being out of one class is 9 * (11/12^150) = 0,000018

Thanks a lot for the quick analysis! So, basically, the chances of this happening (with any class) are one out of fifty-five thousand, which while pretty remote, isn't exactly astronomically unlikely either. There are enough players out there that it was going to happen to -somebody-, and it just happened to be me this time.

Of course, I'm probably going to open my next pack to find five priest cards. :P

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Karayan7 said:

Wow!Your statistical analysis is spot-on!Do you do it by yourself or are you using any kind of tool!Kudos anyway!

I do it myself.

[KingMe 289]

4 hours ago, WedgeAntilles said:

There exists 9 classes + neutal cards.

Neutral cards are more numerous then class cards. I didn't count it but I'd say there are 3 times more neutral cards compared to one single class.

That's why you can define the neutral cards as 3 x a hero class.

-> One card has around a 1/12 chance of being from one specific class.

-> Chances of getting another class as one specific class are 11/12 for each card you get.

30 packs give 150 cards.

Chances of not a single one of them being out of one class is

9 * (11/12^150) = 0,000018

In Prozent: 0,0018%

(The multiplication with 9 is because there are 9 classes [i didn't take the neutral cards into consideration here] and there exists a small chance of not getting a priest card, not getting a warrior card, a druid card...)

;) :P 

[CountPacula 1]

On a related note, is there any way to determine the number of packs of each set that you opened? Also, two more packs and still no priest cards.

A few seconds with my calculator shows that there is about a 35% chance of a given pack having a card from a particular class, so it's not unusual at all for a single pack, but keep opening packs and it adds up quickly. This would be the equivalent of rolling thirty-two d6s and not getting any ones or twos. 

 

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, CountPacula said:

On a related note, is there any way to determine the number of packs of each set that you opened?

Only by counting the cards you have from one expansion - if you didn't disentchant.

Or by keeping track of your packs with an excelsheet.

[CountPacula 1]

41 minutes ago, WedgeAntilles said:

Only by counting the cards you have from one expansion - if you didn't disentchant.

Or by keeping track of your packs with an excelsheet.

I have thirty-four KFT rares that I didn't craft, so if the chance of not getting a rare in a pack (getting an epic or legendary instead) roughly balances out with the chance of getting an extra rare, that makes my estimate of the number of packs I've opened seem pretty close on.

Edited August 21, 2017 by CountPacula