Agony Stealth Nerf? (Affirmed)

[Annoroth 5]

You usually make sense. Can't argue with a thorough position backed by evidence, you can account for variances and provide alternate (and usually correct) explanations for data

[Omaric 246]

Updated thread title.

[Vreivai 0]

If you see UA > Agony, it's an outlier and had something significant impact the parse.

 

Comparing my logs from this week to last week:

 

This week

 

Protectors: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=908&e=1216

Norushen: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=1656&e=2006

Nazgrim: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=6849&e=7138

Malkorok: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=8000&e=8255

Thok: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=10532&e=10900

 

Last week

 

Protectors: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-yw0oxa0vdakpm86l/details/6/?s=966&e=1283

Norushen: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-yw0oxa0vdakpm86l/details/6/?s=2341&e=2665

Nazgrim: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-yw0oxa0vdakpm86l/details/6/?s=9317&e=9715

Malkorok: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-yw0oxa0vdakpm86l/details/6/?s=11695&e=11980

Thok: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-d16avgz3atxbiurq/details/5/?s=4512&e=4870

 

Those are the parses that I played Affliction on both this week and last week (excluding Sha of Pride; there was too great a disparity in Power of the Titans uptime between the two weeks to compare average Agony ticks).

 

Last week, Agony was consistently ahead of UA in damage done. This week, UA was consistently ahead of Agony in damage done.

 

Comparing average Agony ticks

 

Protectors

 

This week: 33007.8 tick, 69739.4 crit

Last week: 36689.4 tick, 80434.8 crit

 

Norushen

 

This week: 43824.5 tick, 86691.2 crit

Last week: 46438.2 tick, 104377.0 crit

 

Nazgrim

 

This week: 37739.4 tick, 78755.5 crit

Last week: 37582.5 tick, 77506.6 crit

 

Malkorok

 

This week: 46041.3 tick, 95723.6 crit

Last week: 45146.2 tick, 100361.6 crit

 

Thok

 

This week: 38652.3 tick, 86306.1 crit

Last week: 41751.3 tick, 91133.4 crit

 

Additionally, note that every parse last night from Dark Shamans onward I had a new weapon (543 MH+536 OH upgraded to 561 staff).

[Zagam 1,982]

Last week, Agony was consistently ahead of UA in damage done. This week, UA was consistently ahead of Agony in damage done.

 

Comparing average Agony ticks

 

Protectors

 

This week: 33007.8 tick, 69739.4 crit

Last week: 36689.4 tick, 80434.8 crit

 

Norushen

 

This week: 43824.5 tick, 86691.2 crit

Last week: 46438.2 tick, 104377.0 crit

 

Nazgrim

 

This week: 37739.4 tick, 78755.5 crit

Last week: 37582.5 tick, 77506.6 crit

 

Malkorok

 

This week: 46041.3 tick, 95723.6 crit

Last week: 45146.2 tick, 100361.6 crit

 

Thok

 

This week: 38652.3 tick, 86306.1 crit

Last week: 41751.3 tick, 91133.4 crit

 

Additionally, note that every parse last night from Dark Shamans onward I had a new weapon (543 MH+536 OH upgraded to 561 staff).

Your numbers don't show anything statistically significant.  You show variances in both directions and at least one result that stayed consistent which validates my claim that Affliction simply has RNG built into the spec as reliance on procs.  I'm not looking at each of your logs because I'm 99.9% certain that there was no nerf and you all are just seeing variances within the spec as it is designed.  I mean look at the variance in your average ticks by different bosses!   Last week you ranged from 77k to 105k....that is a REMARKABLE "Variance" for keeping things consistent.  Look at your logs again next week and I'll bet you spit some more numbers out that lie within a certain range. 

 

Statistics is decent to look at when you have multiple data points, but it loses its significance if you don't look at anything except the numbers.  I've already explained the WHY as to WHY you are seeing such variable numbers.  If needed, I can break it down further.  It's VERY clear there was no nerf.  This could be seen coming from a year away when they reduced RPPM values to just over 1 and gave durations of 10 seconds...I've seen Wushoolay's proc for me back to back to back to back...four consecutive procs.  Just go into your logs and look at your buffs gained and not just uptime but WHEN you got them.  You'll see a huge swing in timing from all of them week to week.  This is why I've hated RNG for so long and why I don't think DPS rankings have any merit to them.  Two players can be playing the EXACT same way with the EXACT same skill and reforge and have a DPS variance over 50k.  It's RNG in RNG in RNG...you're either a victim or a victor, but most of the time, you'll lie within a confidence interval, or range of DPS of around 15-30k.  It's significant enough to explain a minor change in one of your DoTs by 5-10k on its average tick.  If you get procs, average tick goes up.  If you don't, average tick goes down.

[Strife 6]

Comparing my logs from this week to last week:

 

This week

 

Protectors: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=908&e=1216

Norushen: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=1656&e=2006

Nazgrim: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=6849&e=7138

Malkorok: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=8000&e=8255

Thok: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-vsnlwgfnkf37occn/details/4/?s=10532&e=10900

 

Last week

 

Protectors: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-yw0oxa0vdakpm86l/details/6/?s=966&e=1283

Norushen: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-yw0oxa0vdakpm86l/details/6/?s=2341&e=2665

Nazgrim: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-yw0oxa0vdakpm86l/details/6/?s=9317&e=9715

Malkorok: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-yw0oxa0vdakpm86l/details/6/?s=11695&e=11980

Thok: http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-d16avgz3atxbiurq/details/5/?s=4512&e=4870

 

Those are the parses that I played Affliction on both this week and last week (excluding Sha of Pride; there was too great a disparity in Power of the Titans uptime between the two weeks to compare average Agony ticks).

 

Last week, Agony was consistently ahead of UA in damage done. This week, UA was consistently ahead of Agony in damage done.

 

Comparing average Agony ticks

 

Protectors

 

This week: 33007.8 tick, 69739.4 crit

Last week: 36689.4 tick, 80434.8 crit

 

Norushen

 

This week: 43824.5 tick, 86691.2 crit

Last week: 46438.2 tick, 104377.0 crit

 

Nazgrim

 

This week: 37739.4 tick, 78755.5 crit

Last week: 37582.5 tick, 77506.6 crit

 

Malkorok

 

This week: 46041.3 tick, 95723.6 crit

Last week: 45146.2 tick, 100361.6 crit

 

Thok

 

This week: 38652.3 tick, 86306.1 crit

Last week: 41751.3 tick, 91133.4 crit

 

Additionally, note that every parse last night from Dark Shamans onward I had a new weapon (543 MH+536 OH upgraded to 561 staff).

 

I took a look at your log for your biggest variance which was protectors just because I wanted to see your trinket procs and how they compared.

 

Last week you had 9 Wush procs, This week you had 5 Wush procs.

 

That alone kind of shows why you did more damage on Agony last week assuming you are taking advantage of your procs, which has almost double the duration of UA and takes more advantage of those extra Wush procs.

[Zagam 1,982]

I compared last weeks Protectors against this weeks Protectors for me.

 

9/24 Proc Times

0:00

1:10

1:20

1:30

2:40

4:50

5:25

6:15

7:55

8:20

8:45

9:00

9:10

9:20

9:30

9:40

 

10/1

0:00

0:10

0:22

1:00

2:20

2:30

2:40

2:55

4:20

5:10

6:20

6:40

6:50

7:20

8:00

 

Note, the 2nd week I did 25k more DPS because my procs were closer together creating more uptime for Empowered DoTs.  My execute damage was higher the first week because holy shit, 4 procs in a row.  This shifted a lot of damage away from Haunt proportionally and put it in Drain Soul.

 

Every week is a mystery.  Enjoy it.

[Omaric 246]

Hmm, well apparently people were onto something for good reason:

 

 

1. Syed Hamdani‏@SithRaider3h
2. @Hyponet @Ghostcrawler So are you gonna talk about the agony 15% stealth nerf? or is that going to be what must not be named?

 

1. Greg Street‏@Ghostcrawler32m

   @SithRaider It's not intended as a stealth nerf. The hotfix notes just haven't caught up yet. Affliction DPS was still too high.

 

 

It looks like Agony *was* in fact nerfed.  That comment from GC was 30 minutes ago.  It was nerfed, but they didn't get the changes into the notes.  Updating thread title again.

[Vreivai 0]

You show variances in both directions and at least one result that stayed consistent

 

Note that I upgraded my weapon before the Nazgrim parse last night. The ones with even Agony ticks, or where this week's were higher than last week's, included over 2k more spell power from that upgraded weapon.

 

I will agree that this isn't enough parses to be statistically significant. Part of the reason for my post was to add logs that could be analyzed along with others, so there could be enough parses for it to be statistically significant.

[uconnfan34 4]

Wow so it did get nerfed? I thought something was up last night... at least i am not losing my mind. I would not want to have a debate against zagam eaither.. you had me convinced it was not nerfed with all your math and logic.

[Omaric 246]

I'm waiting for the post of shame.  <3

[Strife 6]

I feel like all their nerfs to demo and aff are because of all the multi-target fights in SoO, yet they end up hurting our single target more or just as much when our dps on straight single target fights isn't gamebreaking.

 

You would think if they wanted to nerf Demo so hard because of the way doom interacted with multiple targets/UVLS, they would buff shadowbolt/soulfire and single target fury gain to make our single target more competitive.

 

Same thing with this nerf, I mean we do pretty insane damage on cleave fights, but with the buffs to Destro and compared to other class single target we're not way out there. I'm fine with an Agony nerf but wouldn't it make sense to buff MG some again to account for single target and to not continue to destroy our single target just because of certain fights with lots of cleave? I hate these stupid flat blanket nerfs that don't make sense other than just doing it because they see big numbers.

Edited October 2, 2013 by Strife

[Omaric 246]

I feel like all their nerfs to demo and aff are because of all the multi-target fights in SoO, yet they end up hurting our single target more or just as much when our dps on straight single target fights isn't gamebreaking.

 

You would think if they wanted to nerf Demo so hard because of the way doom interacted with multiple targets/UVLS, they would buff shadowbolt/soulfire and single target fury gain to make our single target more competitive.

 

Same thing with this nerf, I mean we do pretty insane damage on cleave fights, but with the buffs to Destro and compared to other class single target we're not way out there. I'm fine with an Agony nerf but wouldn't it make sense to buff MG some again to account for single target and to not continue to destroy our single target just because of certain fights with lots of cleave? I hate these stupid flat blanket nerfs that don't make sense other than just doing it because they see big numbers.

 

Yet check our damage on single-target fights and you'll find that Affliction is still one of the top dogs, with Demonology not too far behind.  I don't feel we're getting enough Destruction parses with people that have been gearing up more, so that may be skewing data from Raidbots.  I'm looking at parses from yesterday on Malkorok in the 75-90 percentile.

 

It wasn't a stupid flat blanket nerf, really.  It makes sense if you take a fight like Dark Shaman, which there are numerous of, and the power of our DoT cleave is insane.  Here's an example from yesterday:

 

http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-hho7wx29rz9zz00n/sum/damageDone/?s=5675&e=5980

 

I made some mistakes in there as well.  If you make mistakes in your rotation you shouldn't be *dominating* the meters.  I have a lot of great players in my guild.  I think the nerf is warranted. 

 

Edit: Also keep in mind that those numbers are *post* nerf.

 

Edit2: AAAAND my pet died because I was using Soul Link.

[Zagam 1,982]

I give up.  I try to use math, logic, and everything else to defend Blizzard and they go and slap me in the face like that.  I will NEVER defend them again saying they don't do shit like cheating bitches. 

 

This is seriously enough to give up trying to stay on top of things.  I look like an idiot because I defend a company saying they let us know when they make changes and he gives an excuse like 'oh, our changes haven't caught up to patch notes yet.' 

 

NOTE TO GC: When you make a change, JOT IT THE FUCK DOWN AND LET US KNOW.  Especially if it goes live, for fucks sake.  We didn't ask for a novel.  Watch...

 

"Agony has had its effects reduced by 10%."

 

I timed myself...3.7 seconds.  Or are you that busy?

 

To all the Warlocks who trusted me, I apologize.  I made an error in judgment and it'll never happen again.

[Annoroth 5]

In their defense, they admitted to this 20 days sooner than they admitted to nerfing Chaos Bolt.

Yeah guys!

[Lockybalboa 618]

I give up.  I try to use math, logic, and everything else to defend Blizzard and they go and slap me in the face like that.  I will NEVER defend them again saying they don't do shit like cheating bitches. 

 

This is seriously enough to give up trying to stay on top of things.  I look like an idiot because I defend a company saying they let us know when they make changes and he gives an excuse like 'oh, our changes haven't caught up to patch notes yet.' 

 

NOTE TO GC: When you make a change, JOT IT THE FUCK DOWN AND LET US KNOW.  Especially if it goes live, for fucks sake.  We didn't ask for a novel.  Watch...

 

"Agony has had its effects reduced by 10%."

 

I timed myself...3.7 seconds.  Or are you that busy?

 

To all the Warlocks who trusted me, I apologize.  I made an error in judgment and it'll never happen again.

 

 

I still love like tolerate acknowledge you.

 

Really though, Blizz does dumb shit. Not your fault Zag, no harm done. Just remember, 4 weeks till BlizzCon and we can get thrown out together for pissing/spiting/punching/taunting GC.

[Twinkielock 15]

Please please please please please at the class panel ask about this!

[Omaric 246]

I'm just always cautious of shit.  Blizzard has done enough stealth buffs/nerfs to warrant being suspicious of subtle changes.

 

If you'll excuse me I'm going to go post something on another related forum post.

[Ilyenna 1]

it seems blizz tries to balance things and instead keeps pigeon holeing people into specs to stay competitive...i feel that affliction locks deserve some of the dmg they do, its a meticulous rotation to truly master. Next to kitty lol. o well, life goes on, we'll adapt as we always have.

[Omaric 246]

it seems blizz tries to balance things and instead keeps pigeon holeing people into specs to stay competitive...i feel that affliction locks deserve some of the dmg they do, its a meticulous rotation to truly master. Next to kitty lol. o well, life goes on, we'll adapt as we always have.

 

I can't agree that Affliction is nearly complicated enough to compare to feral kittays.  With a little practice Affliction is pretty easy, especially with the changes to Soul Swap (and if you use Affdots).  You basically watch Affdots and refresh DoT's when the numbers increase.  Apply Haunt if capped on Soul Shards or if the DoT strength is super high.  Fill with MG or DS under 20%. 

 

Affliction is still fine e'erbody!

[Kazistrasz 216]

Can they please just learn a lesson from ArenaNet? When you make multiple, repeated, SMALL changes in the right direction, you achieve balance. When you keep making giant swinging nukes to shit, you achieve the same imbalance you had, but in the wrong direction. Like, really, we're still doing a lot of damage, but taking our top damage source by far and raping it like that is just uncalled for.

 

Someone tell me why I still play this game.

[Vreivai 0]

This has given me an idea. I'm going to keep a log of which of our abilities match their tooltips and which don't to help detect stealth nerfs.

[Omaric 246]

Because it has the best and most competitive co-op raiding in the business?

 

If they took more lessons from ArenaNet they would start losing subscriptions to people that say, "For some reason I was having fun playing the game, and then I grew deathly bored.  I don't know why ArenaNet, but I just stopped playing your game because it wasn't fun."

[Kazistrasz 216]

GW2 actually has a LOT of nice features. I'm not saying I'm going to go play that, but they do have a good model for adjusting balance (I played through the betas and for the first several months after release before school took over my life again). Really though, small balancing is good. Big balancing is bad. 

[Omaric 246]

GW2 actually has a LOT of nice features. I'm not saying I'm going to go play that, but they do have a good model for adjusting balance (I played through the betas and for the first several months after release before school took over my life again). Really though, small balancing is good. Big balancing is bad.

10% nerf to Agony is a big balance?

I played GW1 for the sole purpose of filling up my Hall of Monuments for GW2 and got up to 45/50. Sooooo much time spent into that game to get some sweet cosmetics and titles. I was really, really hyped for GW2, but it broke mah heart. /shad faysh

[Ilyenna 1]

I can't agree that Affliction is nearly complicated enough to compare to feral kittays.  With a little practice Affliction is pretty easy, especially with the changes to Soul Swap (and if you use Affdots).  You basically watch Affdots and refresh DoT's when the numbers increase.  Apply Haunt if capped on Soul Shards or if the DoT strength is super high.  Fill with MG or DS under 20%. 

 

Affliction is still fine e'erbody!

i didn't mean to compare, i was saying that kitty is more complicated, then i'd place aff's meticulous play after it. i used to play kitty back in wotlk, it takes patience to say the least