wow When Is the Shadowlands Release Date?

[Starym 3,800]

 

After yesterday's bombshell announcement, it's time for some speculation aided by facts. We know when Shadowlands isn't releasing, but now we need to see if we can find out which of the non-October 26th weekly resets will be the one.

The main thing to note with the delay is that it was a truly big and difficult decision to make, as evidenced by the refund policy emails that were recently sent out, as it was sure to be a big financial hit for Blizzard due to the various earnings projections and so on. Keeping this in mind there's very little chance that they would do this just to delay the expansion a short while. So what's not a short while? We'll be taking another look at previous pre-patch dates as well as the upcoming holidays and a few other factors to see if we can narrow a release window down, or even pick the date itself.

The Pre-patch Length

We now finally know when patch 9.0.1 will be arriving and also know it will almost certainly not be the shortest pre-patch in WoW history. October 13th is the starting point in our quest for the expansion release date (for the US servers, which we'll be using as the base), so let's see how the Shadowlands' arrival would look like if we used previous expansion's pre-patch timings.

Expansion	Pre-Patch Release Date	Expansion Release Date	Pre-Patch Duration (Days)	Expected SL Release Date
The Burning Crusade	December 5, 2006	January 16, 2007	42	November 24th
Wrath of the Lich King	October 14, 2008	November 13, 2008	30	November 12th (10th due to the reset)
Cataclysm	October 12, 2010	December 7, 2010	56	December 8th
Mists of Pandaria	August 28, 2012	September 25, 2012	28	November 10th
Warlords of Draenor	October 14, 2014	November 13, 2014	30	November 12th (10th due to the reset)
Legion	July 19, 2016	August 30, 2016	42	November 24th
Battle for Azeroth	July 17, 2018	August 14, 2018	28	November 10th

We do know that the pre-patch will last a minimum of 2 weeks due to the events in the patch, but we also know it will definitely last more than that because the 2-week mark would put it directly on track for the old, delayed Shadowlands release. So the question then is, will Blizzard be using one of their previous pre-patch lengths as a choice for this one. But let's go a little deeper and see what other factors there are.

The Holidays

While it may make some sense to release the expansions during/close to the holidays, since most players will have time off work by default (family and in-law drama due to having to ding 60 ASAP aside), a holiday-related launch is very unlikely, as Blizzard staff also get time off. The start of an expansion is a particularly staff-intense period, with constant hotfixes, Community Manager posts explaining things and responding to players, and so having a launch in a holiday period seems very unlikely, but there's other dates that might conflict with them as well.

The Raid, M+ and PvP Season 1

As per the official Shadowlands Season 1 release schedule, the raid and M+/PvP S1 will open two weeks after the expansion's release. This is definitely another time period Blizzard have to keep track of when deciding the expansion release and potential conflicts with holiday dates.

The Mythic Race to World First

While this one's technically part of the Season 1 issue, the race has become a major landmark and milestone in WoW's yearly presence. The views the raid race gets on Twitch and coverage in the media has been growing and become pretty big in the last few years, and the events around it have become a very important part of WoW in general, showing off it's hardcore appeal and endgame. The race arrives one week after the Season 1 start, so 3 weeks after expansion launch. The race itself usually lasts 2 weeks, but has been known to be both longer and shorter, with early raids like Castle Nathria being on the shorter side.

One further thing to note, Blizzard has been known to delay the raids to avoid holiday conflicts in the past, like they did with Battle of Dazar'alor. That raid is particularly important, because it was in a very similar state to the one we're looking at now, as the patch it was supposed to come in arrived on December 11th 2018, and the raid was originally scheduled for the 25th, but ultimately got delayed to January 22nd 2019.

The Actual Dates

Now that we have all our factors in order, let's aim some of these time frames at specific dates and see if they make any sense with the holidays and other factors. There really are only a few dates to take a look at based on pre-patch length, November 10th, 24th and December 8th.

A MoP/BfA (and WoD/Legion due to the reset date) length pre-patch sees us at November 10th, which avoids holidays for both the launch and race, but has the raid and season 1 start land very close to Thanksgiving. This seems like a very short amount of time to delay the release, only 2 weeks, so we can safely rule that one out, as there's just no way Blizzard would risk a delay only to get so little extra time to improve the game.

A Burning Crusade length pre-patch would land the release date on November 24th, only 2 days away from Thanksgiving, with Season 1 coming in at December 8th and the RWF on December 15th - putting the potential second week of the race right across the Holiday Season. This might be good enough for Blizzard as again, the first tier is more likely to be short, but with that factor and the initial Thanksgiving one, that's 2 strikes against it.

And finally we have the massive Cataclysm-style pre-patch. 56 days of 9.0.1 would land us at December 8th, with Season 1 coming in on the 22nd and the race starting just before the new year. In this scenario the raid, Season 1 and race would definitely be postponed, Battle of Dazar'alor-style, and we'd be getting them at some point in January. Of all three pre-patch related options, this one seems most likely. It would give Blizzard plenty of time to work on the expansion, to get tons of feedback from pre-patch players and extended beta testers (they could even invite more/all players to the beta in the meantime) and would avoid basically all the holidays.

There's one final date to consider, and it doesn't line up with any previous pre-patches, namely December 1st. This is very similar to the previous entry, but has an added alternate option of only postponing the race itself, as its start would land on the 22nd and would almost definitely be going on over the winter holidays.

So, TLDR, What's the Release Date Then?

Given all the information above, we'd be somewhat torn between December 1st and 8th, but given Blizzard's history and the massive scale of the decision the delay had to be, we're going to lean on the later side and go for December 8th. Castle Nathria, the first raid, would be delayed into January, possibly along with the M+/PvP season. This might be too much time to wait for most players, as it would be over 10 weeks of waiting from today, with even more waiting for the raid and potentially Season 1 as well. We're hoping Blizzard take their time on this one, but we'll give two options here as our final word:

November 24th or December 8th (with our pick being the latter).

[Fisky 2]

So the whole world should wait because our dear USA has thanksgiving? Makes no sense to me tbf.

[Calysia 229]

And how about none of this applies and it comes out next year?

[BeeDad 6]

22 minutes ago, Calysia said:

And how about none of this applies and it comes out next year?

That would be a *massive* delay. I mean as far as we know the shadowlands release date (the original october date) was already probably pushed back to the end of october. Covid cost many teams several weeks of productivity but it's not going to be 3 months.

[Sotman 0]

25 minutes ago, Calysia said:

And how about none of this applies and it comes out next year?

They said later THIS year on the blue post.

[Calysia 229]

3 minutes ago, BeeDad said:

That would be a *massive* delay. I mean as far as we know the shadowlands release date (the original october date) was already probably pushed back to the end of october. Covid cost many teams several weeks of productivity but it's not going to be 3 months.

Not sure how you figure a release date of October was pushed back when the original announcement said by the end of 2020 but...yes...next year would be a massive delay.

[Calysia 229]

7 minutes ago, Sotman said:

They said later THIS year on the blue post.

My comment was more of a sarcastic remark about all of this speculation BS we've been seeing. BUT...at this point I think anything is possible considering the issues and complaints they've been having with Covenants and all.

[72kore 2]

46 minutes ago, Calysia said:

And how about none of this applies and it comes out next year?

That'd be a lawsuit then. When you purchase the expansion it says that it will be available for play before December 31st

[Calysia 229]

1 minute ago, 72kore said:

That'd be a lawsuit then. When you purchase the expansion it says that it will be available for play before December 31st

You really need to start reading the fine print...and get a grasp on reality.

[kage420 0]

1 hour ago, Sotman said:

They said later THIS year on the blue post.

they also gave an official release date so...

[Ogerscherge 43]

2 hours ago, Sotman said:

They said later THIS year on the blue post.

They also said October 26/27th, you remember? Their word has proven to be an unreliable source.

[SidonisAntares 290]

November 17th, in order to generate enough positive interest on social media to spike Black Friday sales among holdouts.

[SidonisAntares 290]

2 hours ago, 72kore said:

That'd be a lawsuit then. When you purchase the expansion it says that it will be available for play before December 31st

Even if that were a feasible case (it's not), they already opened the refund process, nullifying your argument for a lawsuit.

[Bobbis 208]

4 hours ago, Fisky said:

So the whole world should wait because our dear USA has thanksgiving? Makes no sense to me tbf.

I'll give you three guesses as to where the majority, if not all the developer teams are based... Not talking about the CS teams or servers, but the people actually working on SL. 

[Libraridan 36]

4 hours ago, Sotman said:

They said later THIS year on the blue post.

And they never lie or prevaricate...

[Libraridan 36]

Soon^TM   Like always.

[Ariecho 15]

I don't have any beef with Blizzard delaying the expansion launch.  Most of us said in the past that we'd rather have them do it right, rather rush it.

The problem I have is about them starting pre-orders before announcing the new computer requirements for the expansion.  Spending $50 for an expansion is one thing.  Knowing that you may have to fork several hundred dollars just to play it is another.

[Ragingwolf 310]

Can't really cancel my 2 weeks vacation that I put in for October which is fine because I really need a break from work due to health reasons. (not Covid related)  Far as a new possible release date?  It will be tough to push out during November or December due to new console releases along with new titles in competition with 'Black Friday' sales including the upcoming holidays that are soon approaching.  

In the meantime I help the Guild run keys, play some more on Beta, or play around in FFXIV.  No need for me to feel 'burned out' before the expansion is fully released.  And if it should push out in either of those months I may be able to ask for a 3-4 day weekend off before the end of the year.

[Wreck 0]

It'll be ready when Blizzard says it's ready.

[rushnull 0]

i bet it will be December 1st

[Vorguz 33]

Solely for the number of sales, it would be best to release it Nov, 30th to Dec, 14th. Create some hype and present it as a good christmas gift. Alot of people spend so much money on christmas gifts, the 60$ for the game are not that much in comparison. Others will buy it as a christmas gift.
For the servers, it would be good too. Let the players trickle in around christmas and avoid some of the serious server load when a new expac launches.
 

For the players? I dont know. Maybe they need the time to fix/polish the game.

I just hope they dont force the devs to crunch. The quality and people are suffering during it. Crunch is never good, I did it once and never want to do it again.

Edited October 6, 2020 by Vorguz
Typo