Warlords Alpha Stat Summary with Mathematical Analysis

[Zagam 1,982]

In their latest iteration, Blizzard has made some changes to the stats we'll see in Warlords.  Here's a summary...

 

In summary, here’s a complete list of our planned secondary and minor stats in Warlords of Draenor:

Secondary Stats
•Haste: (Unchanged) Increases attack speed, spell casting speed, and some resource generation
•Critical Strike: (Unchanged) Increases your chance to critically strike, dealing double damage
•Mastery: (Unchanged) Increases the effectiveness of your specialization-specific Mastery
•Multistrike: (New) Grants two chances for your damage and healing effects to fire an additional time, each at 30% effectiveness
•Versatility: (New) Increases damage and healing, and reduces damage taken
•Spirit: (Unchanged, healer-only) Increases mana regeneration rate
•Bonus Armor: (New, tank-only) Increases your armor

 

Minor Stats
•Movement Speed: (New) Increases your movement speed
•Indestructible: (New) Causes the item to not take durability damage
•Leech: (New) Causes you to be healed for a portion of all damage and healing done
•Avoidance: (New) Reduces your damage taken from area-of-effect attacks.

 

Bonus Armor requires very little explanation and Haste, Crit, Mastery, and Spirit have been around and will do the same stuff they already do.  A deeper look into Versatility and Multistrike is needed, as well as the new "minor stats."

 

 

MULTISTRIKE ANALYSIS

 

Multistrike will introduce a new version of Multistrike that is different than today's version.  What this will do is take your percentage-based Multistrike and apply it to two separate RNG rolls that will have that chance to deal 30% of the original hit.  Basically, it's a big buff over today's version.

 

Example - Let's say you have 50% Multistrike in WoD.  Let's say you fire off a Chaos Bolt that hits for 100,000 damage.  The game will then do two things...

 

RNG 1 - 50% chance of having a second Chaos Bolt come out and hit for 30,000 damage.

RNG 2 - 50% chance of having a third Chaos Bolt come out and hit for 30,000 damage.

 

This will re-introduce a bit of statistical legwork in order to figure out how much DPS gain this stat will be, which of course, will be what everyone wants to know. 

 

Since Multistrike is a probability statistic and it has two individual events occurring, we can use a simple formula to determine the probability of getting 0 extra attacks, 1 extra attack, or 2 extra attacks.

 

P(0) = (1 - Multistrike chance)^2

P(1) = 1 - P(0) - P(2)

P(2) = (Multistrike Chance) * (Multistrike Chance)

 

For computational decision, you can assume the value of P(0) = 0, P(1) = 30%, and P(2) = 60% with the original attack damage being your baseline calculation.

 

10% Multistrike

P(0) = (1-.1) * (1-.1) = .9 * .9 = 81% of getting 0 additional damage

P(1) = 1 - .81 - .01  = .18 = 18% of getting 30% additional damage

P(2) = (.1) * (.1) = 1% of getting 60% additional damage

 

If you wanted to combine these figures to a weighted DPS gain, you could do the following:

 

(.81*0) + (.18 * .3) + (.01 * .6) = 0 + .054 + .006 = 0.06, or a 6% DPS gain on average.

 

How would this scale for higher Multistrikes?  Let's look at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%.

 

25% Multstrike

P(0) = (1-.25) * (1-.25) = .75 * .75 = .5625, or 56.25%

P(1) = 1-.5625-.0625 = .375, or 37.5%

P(2) = .25 * .25 = .0625, or 6.25%

 

.5625 * 0 + .375 * .3 + .0625 * .6 = 0 + .1125 + .0375 = .15, or a 15% DPS gain, on average.

 

50% Multistrike

P(0) = .5 * .5 = 25%

P(1) = 1-.25-.25 = 50%

P(2) = .5 * .5 = 25%

 

.25 * 0 + .5 * .3 + .25 * .6 = 0 + .15 + .15 = 30% DPS gain, on average.

 

75% Multistrike

P(0) = .25*.25 = 6.25%

P(1) = 37.5%

P(2) = .75*.75 = 56.25%

 

.125 * 0 + .3125 * .3 + .5625 * .6 or 45% DPS gain, on average.

 

100% Multistrike

P(2) = 100%

1*.6 = 60% DPS gain, on average.

 

To summarize Multistrike, it's a linear gain, giving you 100/60, or 0.6% DPS gain per percentage point of Multistrike.  This, of course, remains ONLY true if Blizzard keeps this model of Multistrke.  Please also note that Multistrike IS tied to RNG - the results I've given you are based on EXACT probability occurrences which is highly unlikely to happen.  For example, someone with 75% Multistrike could have a string of bad luck and get only 38% DPS from Multistrike, similar to what you could experience with Kardris' Toxic Totem today.  Gotta love that RNG.

 

 

VERSATILITY ANALYSIS

 

Versatility is a baseline scaling of DPS and damage reduction.  For every point of Versaitility, you gain 1% DPS and gain 0.5% damage reduction.  Pretty simple.

 

 

MINOR STAT ANALYSIS

 

This will feel a bit like the warforged or thunderforged options we've had in the past - just a small bonus that will be exciting to see and consequential to the benefit of your raid group. 

 

As always, I'm doing my best to keep on top of things and do my analytical analysis.  I am a human, so if you see errors anywhere, please point them out. 

[JvChequer 43]

I want to see the theorycrafting about WF version vs Gem on items.

 

Can't wait for more information.

Edited June 4, 2014 by JvChequer

[Zagam 1,982]

I want to see the theorycrafting about WF version vs Gem on items.

 

Can't wait for more information.

NEED BETA.  Sorry this wasn't good enough for you.

[SparkSovereign 61]

NEED BETA.  Sorry this wasn't good enough for you.

 

That will pretty much come down to how highly weighted primary stats are; since they won't be on gems, they don't have to be tied to secondary stat weights at all, and the influence of attack/spellpower on final damage is still very much in flux.  You might finally math it out just to have them iterate on the overall design again and invalidate all your results.  That sort of thing will come once we get to the point where people are building simcraft models for WoD.

 

Wild guess, though, that warforged will probably win; unless they change the entire ilvl paradigm (unlikely), if gems win then going into battle with your freshly looted, still ungemmed gear would be a massive loss rather than a minor one, which is counter to previously stated goals about "just throw on your new gear".

[Kazistrasz 216]

Also going to matter what scale they set for points-to-percent. Presently, it's 600 to 1% for crit, which is part of why crit is so weak for many classes, when haste scales 425 to 1% and many masteries scale similarly or better.

 

We won't be able to have solid anything until we can see these scales and see how much everything does.

[JvChequer 43]

NEED BETA.  Sorry this wasn't good enough for you.

Calm down bro, I was not requiring it for u, just expressing my feelings about how excited I am for more informations.

[Zagam 1,982]

Calm down bro, I was not requiring it for u, just expressing my feelings about how excited I am for more informations.

I'm calm - it was a joke, broski.

[JvChequer 43]

I'm calm - it was a joke, broski.

AWWWWW YOU....

 

PS: I'm on Alpha. yay

[Soulzar 42]

AWWWWW YOU....

 

PS: I'm on Alpha. yay

 

Crossing my fingers for when they do the Alliance pass...:D

[Twinkielock 15]

Just got my invite today as well!

[Soulzar 42]

My name is still on the No Beta club list... if anybody needs me, i'll be in my corner