The current raid – Liberation of Undermine – has been out for 6 weeks. And with the 7th ID, all characters will have access to the 4th catalyst charge, excluding KSM, etc. Since Patch 9.2 – the last raid tier of Shadowlands – this model of tier gear acquisition has allowed players to access and finish their current class sets without entering the raid. With this system in place, is there less of a reason to go raiding? Is interest in raiding declining faster? Using heroic raid progression data from RaiderIO, Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the details.
Heroic Raid Activity Since Tomb of Sargeras
For the entire article, the focus is on Heroic raid data. Heroic raids usually see more participation than Normal mode and higher completion rates than Mythic. So they should be the best choice to make a statement about the state of raiding in general. First, let’s see how Heroic raid participation and progression have been going since Tomb of Sargeras. TOS is the first raid that was completely documented by RaiderIO’s data acquisition. Any prior raid doesn’t have sufficient data. It also marks the second-to-last raid that would drop tier sets until their re-implementation with Patch 9.2 in Shadowlands.
In general, we can observe the expansion launch spikes from BFA and SL. Uldir and Castle Nathria show peak interest in WoW and raiding in general. On the other hand, especially Castle Nathria and the raids following it are clearly impacted by the SL content drought in combination with the Activision/Blizzard scandal and the COVID lockdown bump. This also affected Ny’alotha, which showed higher numbers than previous tiers because it lasted for over 40 weeks. Amirdrassil and Sepulcher sit at the bottom, both end-of-expansion raids. This makes sense as players may not have stuck around for long after their release. Undermine isn’t finished yet, so we won’t be using it for this graph.
Part of this decline over time is already countered by a massive increase in Mythic+ metrics. These saw more than 20 million runs and more than 3 million active characters for most regular seasons since the start of Dragonflight. Previous Mythic+ seasons only got close to these values if they seemingly lasted forever. Like Shadowlands S1 and BFA S4, for example.
The First 6 Weeks For Each Raid Tier
If we now restrict each raid to its first 6 weeks or 42 days, progression is a bit all over the place. This can always be attributed to difficulty curves and delayed nerfs over the later weeks of each tier. But in general, the last 4 tiers seem to have a more compact progression within their first few bosses without major drop-offs. For the last 6 raid tiers, class sets have been accessible via the Catalyst. Before we had the dreaded Domination Shard sets during Sanctum of Domination, which were almost exclusive to the raid. Castle Nathria had no exclusive loot that wasn’t covered by Mythic+, PvP items or vault loot in general. During BFA a lot of Azerite armor pieces were rather sought after. This is due to Mythic+ and the alternative vendor acquisition not giving you access to the best pieces.
So there could be a certain pattern of incentive to at least approach the raid in general over the entire duration of the raid tier to complete any kind of gear set. On the other hand, players might also have seen raiding more as a means to an end. That end being getting the class set and nothing more. They might have dropped out, or raid groups would dissolve or not fully pull through if the class sets were checked off. Keep in mind that these days, within week 7, anyone can have access to a full tier set outside of raiding.
Boss Kills in the First 6 Weeks Compared to the Full Raid Duration
Now let’s take a look at what percentage of kills for each boss happened in the first 6 weeks compared to their full lifetime amount. So, for example, 88.49% of all first kills for the first boss in Nerub-ar Palace (Ulgrax) happened in the first 6 weeks.
Undermine is not included here since it is still an active raid tier. But for the other raids, it is becoming quite obvious that at least since Dragonflight, long-term interest is declining. Raiders might not be that motivated, or rather forced to move on from Normal mode to Heroic. New or returning players joining the game later during the raid might also see no need to go raiding. A similar effect is possible for alts. An outlier like Ny’alotha also benefited from more and more groups raiding it long-term due to the lockdown and a really long last raid tier.
The last 3 completed raid tiers clearly show over 80% of all boss kills happen in the first 42 days for most of the early bosses. Some of it can be attributed to better tuning further into each raid. But the trend of fewer groups progressing through the raid as the raid tier continues is quite obvious.
For the first few raids after the implementation of the Catalyst (Sepulcher & Vault of the Incarnates), this behavior seems to have gained a bit of momentum. And now we are seeing this pattern much more solidified. Now look at the last time before 9.2 when we had traditional class sets. The values for Antorus and Tomb of Sargeras are closer to 60%. Antorus was the last raid tier and lasted a bit longer; TOS was in line with the more recent releases. And this seems like a clear indicator that the catalyst has a major impact on raiding by now.
The last 5 Raid Tiers Over 42 Days in Detail
The tuning for each raid clearly differs throughout all of the encounters. But the top curve representing the first boss clearly shows a pattern. The raid participation is flattening out rather close to the 5 to 7 week marker.
For Vault of the Incarnates, this pattern breaks a bit. But you have to keep in mind that during the first raid tier of Dragonflight, the system was still rather new to many returning players. In addition, later during each raid, the amount of tier tokens dropping has always been reduced for the last few tiers. That way, the focus is shifting towards basic gearing and progressing through the raid instead of just hunting your full set.
Note: The completely flattened out plateau of Amirdrassil is just the effect of the approaching Christmas holidays.
In Conclusion
Declining raid metrics can always be taken as an indicator for the entire game. But only if raiding is as important as it was in the past. Mythic+ and lately Delves have given players other ways to progress their characters. And raiding by now is no longer the one and only feature for endgame progression, but stands among the other two types of content. All in all, WoW’s future in terms of providing content has broadened a lot more. Just as we can broaden our horizons when it comes to observing the entire game and not just a niche that made the game stand out in 2005. It is better for raiding to be a gameplay feature than just the only way to get your class set.
Players still want to progress their characters within this game. And class sets are always a major contribution to gameplay and class fantasy as well as a cosmetic cherry on top. Back in the day, you had to raid to fully access the benefits for your chosen class. These days, you can get them the way you enjoy playing WoW. And the Catalyst is a great addition to the game that facilitates that.
